Pro Tour BFZ Top 8 - Which Cards, How Many, and What Now?

There is nothing like the Pro Tour to shuffle up excitement for Magic. The Pro Tour has a significant impact on the Standard metagame for weeks to come, which drives prices up or down for many cards in the format. Let's take a look at the best decks in the tournament to see what cards are winning Pro Tour BFZ. The Top 8 displays a fair bit of variety. We have a version of Atarka Red, two decks sporting the new Jeskai Black moniker, a Jeskai Tokens deck, a Jeskai deck (no adjective needed), two Abzan decks, and a GW Megamorph deck. Let's take a closer look at the innards of these decks to see which cards are being played in what amounts. Below you will find a list of the cards with the most copies in the Top 8 decklists. I am only displaying cards with ten or more copies represented.

Most Copies in Pro Tour BFZ Top 8 Standard Decks 

Card	Copies in Top 8	Decks Played In
Flooded Strand	25	7
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar	20	5
Wooded Foothills	20	5
Windswept Heath	17	5
Mountain	16	5
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy	16	4
Bloodstained Mire	15	4
Hangarback Walker	15	4
Polluted Delta	15	4
Fiery Impulse	14	7
Plains	14	7
Mystic Monastery	14	4
Silkwrap	12	6
Den Protector	12	4
Forest	12	4
Mantis Rider	12	3
Warden of the First Tree	12	3
Wingmate Roc	11	6
Disdainful Stroke	11	4
Dromoka's Command	11	3
Wild Slash	10	4
Crackling Doom	10	3

Winners

We knew the fetches were good. It should be no surprise that three of them are ranked one, three, and four on the list. For the most part, I am going to ignore the fetches here, but one surprise is that the most expensive fetch, Polluted Delta, ranks fifth of the fetches on the list. One thing to note is the complete absence of the BFZ lands in the list. Prairie Stream and Canopy Vista both had eight copies among multiple decks in the Top 8. Smoldering Marsh and Sunken Hollow both were one-ofs in five decks. Takimura's Abzan deck had four copies of Shambling Vent, and two decks shared three copies of Cinder Glade. So far, these lands or two-ofs at best in the Top 8, and that should temper their immediate prices. Expect the new lands to drop a bit in price.

Another non-surprise is Gideon's place on the list as the top-ranked non-land card. Among the Top 8 decks, there are a full 20 Gideons. If we split them evenly, each deck would have two to three Gideons. I think Gideon's place in the format is solid and his price should either continue above $30 or climb even higher.

Baby Jace comes in at number two for non-lands with Hangarback Walker not far behind. It seems these two heavyweights will hang in for a few more rounds as well. Expect their prices to hold or climb this weekend. If you can still find Walkers for $15, it may be the time to snag them. It is just a rare, but Origins will have less total cards on the market compared with expert sets.

Fiery Impulse, coming in at number four on the non-land list is somewhat surprising. It is just a common, so we can't expect it to command any kind of price while in print, but there might be some spring in this little guy's step for the remainder of standard. It's a fun card and it's a Bolt half the time in many of the decks that want to play it. Two damage kills a lot of the quality early plays like Jace and Abbot.

Silkwrap was a huge surprise to me. When I saw it displayed in a deck tech on Twitch, I was still underwhelmed, but it sure did make a splash in the Top 8 decks with a full 12 copies in the mix. It is an uncommon and might start looking like last season's Stoke the Flames. If you caught it making waves on camera, leave us a comment! I can definitely see it matching up well against a lot of the early plays just like Fiery Impulse.

Mantis Rider is seeing a resurgence as well with four Jeskai decks in the top 8. Three of those decks are playing full sets of Riders. Wingmate Roc and Crackling Doom also gobbled up a number of deck slots in the Top 8. All three of these rares should see their prices rise for at least the next few weeks. Who knows if they will stay on top for long. After the Pro Tour price bump, it might be time to get out of these cards via Pucatrade or your LGS since they will be in the hot decks of the next few weeks. All three had been diving over the last Standard Meta, and it's hard for these rares to hold their value. Look at Siege Rhino. Those things were everywhere but still hardly held their $5 price tag. If these three get over $4, I'd say let 'em go.

Edit: Wingmate Roc is  mythic, not a rare, and will likely jump in price much more than Doom and Rider. It can also hold a much higher price.

Warden of the First Tree is a mythic, but was reprinted in the BFZ event deck. I am not sure about him. He's held pretty steady at about $4 since May, but could see a resurgence due to his prominence as a four-of in three Top 8 decks. I'd expect him to jump this weekend.

Dromoka's Command had ten copies in the Top 8. Not shown in the list, but Kolaghan's Command and Ojutai's Command posted six copies among two decks in the Top 8, while Atarka's Command was a four-of in Atarka Red. I'd expect the commands to continue to hold a high premium in the marketplace.

Losers

Ruinous Path, Secure the WAstes, Sorin, Narset, Ob Nixilis, Whisperwood, Hidden Dragonslayer, Evolutionary Leap, Utter End, Nissa, Chandra, and Mastery of the Unseen all had three or less copies in the Top 8. Some of these had entered the season with fanfare, but at least as far as the best MAgic Players of the Pro Tour are concerned, they aren't worth putting many in their decks. These might lose value over the next few weeks. If you think they could make a comeback, it might be time to pick them up soon.

Exquisite Firecraft was absent from the Top 8 even though many decks had the mana to play it. The double red made it just to hard to include in the three to four color strategies that dominated play. Even in the red dominated Atarka Red deck, no firecraft could be found. It has been dropping since August, and I can't see a reason that it wouldn't continue that path after today.

Dragonlord Ojutai was nowhere to be found in the Top 8. I feel that this is a huge deal. None of the control strategies felt she was worth including. We had 4 decks with the colors to play her, but not a single copy came to the party. Ojutai's price will drop. She's been dropping since May with a sharp spike a few days ago back to above $30. If anyone out there is looking for a playset, I am in the market to drop mine. No one wants these on Puca right now...

I'd love to hear your insights about the financial implications of the Pro Tour. Leave us a comment below or connect with us via Twitter. So long for now.

@ktchntblmgc

Reprint Jace, Vryn's Prodigy - Or Ban Him

Have you seen Standard deck prices lately?

Is having a Modern price of entry for Standard play healthy for Wizards? I don't think so. Standard playability drives much of the market to open currently legal boxes, driving Wizards' sales up. Modern is a safer format to get into because you won' t be turning your deck over year after year. If the price for standard-legal and modern legal decks is close, it would follow that more people might chose to move into Modern. Take a look at the top four Standard decks as of 10/7/2015.

(MTGO Standard Meta report, 10/7/2015)

Their average price, taking the meta percent into account is $560. Wowzers! On March 4th, I did the same analysis of average deck prices and we were at $340 then. That is a 64% increase. What is going on?

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy is going on, that's what. Back in March, the highest priced deck was Abzan Midrange at $440. Now, the highest priced deck is nearly $700, and the lowest priced deck is over $400. The current cheap deck, Abzan Aggro, doesn't have any Jaces. Jace is currently holding a hair below $70. That makes a playset $280, which is only $5 less than then #2 deck in March, RW Aggro. That's right a playset of one card right now in Standard is going for about the same price of an entire Tier 1 deck back in March.

Vryn's Prodigy is everywhere. Five of the top eight decks in the format are playing a full set of Jace's. Every deck playing blue has four copies of Jace. Either he is warping the format (ban hammer?) or he's due for a reprint. We simply can't have the price of entry to Tier one Standard be $600 - $700. It's bad for the game.

Vryn's Prodigy needs a reprint to bring his price and therefore the price of Standard down. Hangarback Walker, Gideon, and the fetch lands aren't helping, but Jace is the dirty little wizard behind the insane price increase for Standard decks. He needs to be in the next duel deck, the one with the planeswalkers. Maybe he could be printed in the new Commander set. Either he needs to be reprinted or he needs to be banned from Standard.